I laughed so hard and so often at IDC’s smartphone forecast, my response took nine days to write—okay, to even start it. The future isn’t my chuckable—that data looks reasonably believable enough—but the past. Because 2016 was supposed to be the year that Microsoft’s mobile OS rose from the ashes of Symbian to surpass iOS and to challenge Android.
In 2011, IDC forecast that Windows Phone global smartphone OS market share would top 20 percent in 2015. The analyst firm reiterated the platform’s No. 2 status for 2016 in 2012 as well. Not that I ever believed the ridiculous forecasts, writing: “If Windows Phone is No. 2 by 2015, I’ll kiss Steve Ballmer’s feet” and “If Windows Phone is No. 2 by 2016, I’ll clean Steve Ballmer’s toilet“. The CEO’s later retirement let me lose from those obligations had I been wrong. I was confident in my analysis being truer.