Tag: housing bubble

Photo by Joe WilcoxMay 2, 202310:15 pm

All The Time (Zones) in the World

What do you make of this? The area along the Kindred Hospital property in San Diego village of University Heights is a bit of a homeless campsite. Makeshift tents tucked behind utility boxes or covered bodies stretched out on grass are commonly seen. Shopping carts chock full of junk—eh, personal belongings— are navigational hazards. Weave as you walk!

A lone cart containing a time-zone map of the world made an impression for seeming so out of place by any measure. Who did it belong to? Why did he or she abandon it? Was the wall hanging free for the taking? Discarded? Forgotten? You know, the shopping cart got left behind—accidentally detached from several carts strung together.

Photo by Joe WilcoxApr 17, 202311:07 pm

The San Diego Housing Boom is Bust

About two weeks ago, Reventure Consulting posted a YouTube short spotlighting a house for sale in my neighborhood: “$1 Million Listing in San Diego that has no buyers“. I wanted to snag a photo and write something sooner, but our daughter’s medical crisis and recovery consumed my time.

At the time that Reventure Consulting CEO and Founder Nicholas Gerli released the 53-second clip, the University Heights home listed for $1,099,000, following several price reductions. Recent history: For sale at $1,222,000 on Dec. 15, 2022. Less than a month later, January 12, price dropped to $1,192,000 and to $1,162,000 thirteen days later. That led to a pending sale for the lower list price on February 21, which quickly collapsed, and the home returned for sale at $1,162,000 on February 24. Sellers dropped the price, again, on March 1 to $1,135,000 and to $1,099,000 on the 23rd.

Photo by Joe WilcoxJan 12, 20239:26 pm

What Would You Pay to Live Here?

Zillow lists 30 places for rent in my neighborhood of University Heights. You are looking at the most expensive: $5,950 per month. For a rent like that, I think Manhattan or San Francisco—not a somewhat middleclass area of San Diego. But, hey, the deposit is only $5500 (plus another $500, if you have a small pet). Lucky you.

Strangely, the place is a bargain, because half-a-block distance is a $5,450 rental that may be less monthly but poorer value for the size:1,450 square feet, compared to 2,325 sq ft for the pricier property.

Photo by Joe WilcoxAug 9, 20229:52 pm

San Diego Housing is Beyond You

What I want to know: Who rented this University Heights home? When my wife and I passed by on Aug. 3, 2022, a “For Rent” sign welcomed interest—well, until looking at the asking price of, uh-hum, $5,450 monthly. Granted, by square feet, the place is one of the larger houses in our San Diego neighborhood. But who commits to $65,400—more than an annual salary for many locals—to rent?

Buying is no bargain. One of the, ah, affordable homes for sale nearby lists for $1.1 million. Zillow estimates a monthly mortgage payment, along with insurance and taxes, of $5,797; that’s after 20 percent down. Who can afford to buy? Answer: The fine folks at Visual Capitalist rank San Diego as the nation’s third costliest home market, with a median price of $905,000. Necessary salary: $166,828.

Photo by Joe WilcoxMay 9, 20229:48 pm

This is Progress?

I am not obsessed with the construction site at El Cajon Blvd and Louisiana Street, despite the number of recent photos and commentaries about it: Cave’s Grave; Wonder Wall; Shattered Serenity; Postal Convenience Center. My interest is what the project represents to San Diego neighborhoods Hillcrest, North Park, and University Heights, where relaxation of zoning rules is bringing down charming businesses and homes and replacing them with high-rises that are way out of character with the area.

The Featured Image, taken on May 7, 2022 using Leica Q2, captures before, during, and after multi-unit construction. Foreground looks across the aforementioned recent demolition to a four-story residential complex at Mississippi, overlooking the recently relocated Red Fox Steak House.

Leica by Joe WilcoxMay 6, 202210:30 pm

Decorating the Cave’s Grave

The demolition site at El Cajon Blvd and Louisiana Street in University Heights returns five days later, because of alterations. Remnants remain of the Cave of Wonders building, but somebody has graffitied over some of the doodle drawings of the still-standing inner wall.

In reviewing the Featured Image, I see another change: The livable-looking property that was to the right behind in my previous shots is gone. Vitals, aperture manually set: f/8, ISO 100, 1/160 sec, 28mm; 4:48 p.m. PDT; Leica Q2.

Photo by Joe WilcoxMay 1, 20229:23 pm

The Cave of Wonders Wall

New construction is everywhere among several San Diego neighborhoods, following zoning changes meant to encourage multi-unit dwellings. ADUs—so-called accessory dwelling units—add large structures in spaces once considered to be back yards. The spin doctors who sprinkle marketing sugar onto urban renewal medicinals call these buildings Granny Flats. Oh yeah? So why does gran need four to seven residences?

The project at El Cajon Blvd and Louisiana Street is much bigger—and I see similar high-rises, or larger, going up around University Heights, as well as bordering Hillcrest and North Park.

Photo by Joe WilcoxApr 29, 20229:42 pm

Fenced Out of Affordable Housing

My daughter rents storage space at one of the local facilities. From my infrequent trips to the place over the years, I have observed stark changes. For starters: An increasing number of people, many of them clearly employed, living out of a vehicle and storing their stuff. With the cost of housing so incredulously expensive in San Diego, these working nomads are not surprising to find. What shocks is how many more I see compared to 18 months ago.

Since a new report about residential renting released this week, I will focus on that topic and let be soaring home selling prices for another time. (If you can’t wait: “Pop Goes Another Housing Bubble” and “Simply Stated: San Diego Unaffordable Housing“.) According to Zumper, rents rose 31.3 percent year-over-year in April 2022. “As a result, San Diego has leapfrogged San Jose and Los Angeles to become the nation’s fifth most expensive city”. Ugh, and I know it’s a fact from watching rents relentlessly rise.

Photo by Joe WilcoxApr 27, 202210:11 pm

Shattered Serenity

The difference 24 hours make. Yesterday, the abandoned houses still stood along Louisiana Street at El Cajon Blvd. Today, they—and the businesses around the block—are gone. The Featured Image captures something of the devastation. Vitals: f/8, ISO 100, 1/320 sec, 28mm; 1:26 p.m. PDT. This one and the others come from Leica Q2, aperture manually set for all.

My wife and I have known since summer last year what would happen along one of my favorite blocks in San Diego’s University Heights neighborhood. Two cottage complexes, a few modestly-rising apartment buildings, and bunches of single-story houses—with vast swaths of grass and greenery in an area otherwise converting to cement—create calming ambience. The street is, or was, surprisingly serene. Three residential properties on Louisiana and businesses half-way to Mississippi along The Boulevard are gone.

Photo by Joe WilcoxApr 10, 202210:23 pm

Pop Goes Another Housing Bubble

The current housing bubble—and there absolutely is one—bears only modest resemblance to the previous catastrophe, which I warned about in a lengthy August 2005 analysis. Rising mortgage rates already are deflating the 2020’s-decade bubble, but the pop is unavoidable without fundamental changes in the actual market or the myths used to explain existing dynamics.

Since before anyone heard of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2)/COVID-19, which economic and societal disruption super-inflated the housing bubble, I had warned about a dangerous trend that ignores common sense observation of national demographics: Among the two largest segments, Baby Boomers are dying off and Millennials aren’t having many kids. As population growth stalls, there will be less demand for housing because there will be fewer people to buy. Meaning: All the babbling about not enough inventory has set into motion an overbuilding frenzy that is sure to deflate home values in the not-so-distant future. Before pandemic lockdowns, I had thought within 10 years. I now expect less than five—if we’re lucky.

Photo by Joe WilcoxMar 3, 20228:49 pm

How About ‘U’ for Unaffordable

Hours following a routine visit to the ophthalmologist and dilation, my pupils are still huge and so my vision remains wonky. I can’t imagine what the Featured Image really looks like. Perhaps you can tell me. I stood in the middle of Park Blvd and used Leica Q2 to make the moment on Feb. 23, 2022. Vitals, aperture manually set: f/5.6, ISO 100, 1/640 sec, 28mm; 9:30 a.m. PST.

The sign is situated between Adams and Madison, and viewpoint is towards the latter. Around the turn of the last century, Bentley Ostrich Farm relocated to the district—hence the birds on the poles. During the same era, street cars served the community, and some of them were housed and serviced in a facility that is long gone but became the public Old Trolley Barn Park.

Photo by Joe WilcoxJan 28, 20229:59 pm

The House on Cleveland

Today’s question: How much longer before this lovely home is demolished and replaced with something ill-suited to the street? On Dec. 2, 2021, I used Leica Q2 to take the Featured Image, after my wife read about the property in University Heights Community Association News. Photo vitals, aperture manually set: f/4.5, ISO 100, 1/160 sec, 28mm; 12:18 p.m. PST.

According to public property records, the place sold for $1.595 million during October 2021. UHCA News reports: “This charming Victorian home at 4350 Cleveland is 2,000 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths and built in 1905, according to the 2015 Uptown Historic Resources Survey Report”.